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"CAPITAL"

Give Thanks For Gridlock, Wish For No Income Taxes

By: Stuart Wm. Marsh

President, Genesee Capital, Inc.

December 16, 1994

  Around the holiday season people think about what they have to be thankful for and also make wish lists. I have done the same, regarding our economy and capital markets.

 

  The reasons I am thankful for the following things may not seem obvious at first, but upon a little reflection, maybe you'll agree.

 

  GRIDLOCK - I am thankful for gridlock, even though many people complain that Congress is not getting anything done as a result of it. But this country is a democracy in which the majority rules, and if legislation cannot be enacted, it means that its proponents cannot muster a majority. We can decry gridlock, but gridlock is what prevented President Bill Clinton, elected by roughly 42% of the voters, from enacting incredibly expensive and unworkable healthcare "reform."

 

  THE FEDERAL RESERVE - I am thankful for the Federal Reserve, which is our country's central bank, and that it is an independent entity and is not controlled by Congress. Many politicians and voters would like to be able to control the Fed because it has a nasty habit of increasing interest rates and slowing down the economy, which stifles job creation.

 

  I am thankful that the Federal Reserve controls our money supply, because in those nations where the central bank is controlled by politicians, they literally print money to fund government spending. The result often is hyperinflation. The Russian ruble, never really worth very much, is now worth much less because the government is financing its spending by printing rubles as fast as it can. In many South American countries in the 1970s, inflation was running at the rate of 1,000% per month. We can thank the Federal Reserve as we complain about our inflation of 4% or 5% per year.

 

  HIGHER INTEREST RATES - I am thankful for higher interest rates, even though they are considered "bad," and many people believe that only banks benefit from them. But the current rise in interest rates reflects a growing economy, and as the economy grows, the demand for capital grows, pushing up its price. Bear in mind that a major beneficiary of higher interest rates are senior citizens, who have nest eggs they have invested in low-risk certificates of deposit to provide stable sources of retirement income.

 

  We can long for the lower interest rates of just a few years ago, but remember, those low interest rates were a function of a weak economy and rising unemployment.

 

  NAFTA - I'm thankful for the North American Free Trade Agreement, even though there was supposed to be a giant sucking sound that we would hear as all the jobs in America went to Mexico. This did not happen at all, and American jobs could easily have been sucked into Mexico before NAFTA. While it is true that America is now importing more goods from Mexico, we are exporting even more to them. The American economy and American workers on the whole are better with NAFTA than without it.

 

  The U.S. LEGAL SYSTEM - I am thankful for our legal system, even though most everyone else complains about it. But even though our system is slow, expensive and sometimes unfair, it is far superior to most other legal systems. In France the defendant is guilty until proven innocent. ("But of course you are guilty, monsieur, for if you were innocent, we would not be charging you with this crime!")

 

  In Russia there is virtually no legal system: Conflict resolution typically is handled with bribes, guns, or violence. We can complain about our legal system, which is not perfect, but it is much better than many of the alternatives.

 

  DUMPING - I am thankful for "dumping," which is the term used by American companies to complain about a foreign company selling their goods in the U.S. below "cost." American companies hate dumping because they supposedly cannot compete against it. If dumping is allowed to continue, they argue, the American company and its entire industry will go out of business, throwing millions of people out of work and probably even threatening our national security!

 

  Wait a minute. While an uproar is made about who is suffering from all this dumping, everyone is overlooking who is benefiting: the American consumer buying these goods below "cost." If Japan wants to subsidize all its automakers and chipmakers so that the day comes when only the Japanese have the skills to make cars and semi-conductors, let them try. It will never happen for two reasons. The Japanese taxpayers who ultimately are paying for this subsidy will want it ended and human beings are very intelligent: those skills needed to make chips and cars will be reacquired. (I just wish the German government would start a subsidy program and encourage Mercedes-Benz to start dumping cars in America.)

 

  Now let's turn to my wish list.

 

  REVISE OUR LEGAL SYSTEM - America has been such a litigious society because our legal system is structured to encourage lawsuits.

 

  Party A has a complaint against Party B and brings a lawsuit. B retains legal counsel and prepares to defend itself. Attorneys for A and B have no incentive to quickly resolve the dispute because they are being paid on an hourly basis. A and B then go to trial. If the suit is not frivolous, and the judge rules party B is innocent, A and B go home. But A and B have incurred legal expenses and incurred other real costs as a result of the lawsuit. B was found innocent, yet was still forced to incur costs because A chose to inflict those costs by filing a lawsuit. How often do you hear about someone settling out of court for some amount of money because it was cheaper than going to trial?

 

  We should adopt the British system. If A brings a suit against B and loses, A pays all costs, including all of B's. This would be a strong disincentive to bringing a lawsuit unless the party is convinced it is right and will win.

 

  BALANCE THE FEDERAL BUDGET – Even though America is financially the strongest country in the world, with the best credit rating and an almost inexhaustible ability to borrow money, our federal budget deficits are costing us now, in the form of higher-than-necessary interest rates, and will cost us later as the next generation inherits this country, complete with an enormous mortgage on it. Let's balance the budget, and may be even pay off some of the debt, by cutting spending, not raising taxes.

 

  ELIMINATE INCOME TAXES - Wow! I'm talking a very Merry Christmas from Uncle Sam! This is not a Utopian dream. This country taxes all the wrong things: earned income, interest income and dividend income, all of which come from gainful employment or capital investment. Why tax success?

 

  Part of our problem is that our tax code encourages consumption and discourages investment. Americans are taxed on dividend and interest income, and save roughly 4% of their income. The Japanese don’t tax dividend and interest income, and save roughly 20% of their income. And we wonder why Japan is so strong. Let's reverse this. Let's tax consumption, in the form of a sales tax, and let's encourage work, thrift, and investment by eliminating taxes on wages and investments.

 

  STOP CHANGING RULES - Picture this scenario: Your team has marched downfield to within inches of the goal line. It’s fourth down. With only seconds left on the clock in the fourth quarter, you must score a touchdown to win. The team huddles. Suddenly, a whistle blows and there are flags down all over the field. The referee calls "strike three!" and puts half of your team in the penalty box with a 10-minute misconduct, assesses the other half of your team a two-stroke penalty, and commands the opposing team to the foul line and gives them two free throws.

 

  If you don’t know what’s going on here, think of how business people feel every time Congress changes the rules in the middle of the game. Business in this country is accused of being shortsighted and only focused on short-term profits. But how can we expect rational people to make long-term investments when they fear Congress will change the rules in the middle of the game?

 

  HEED TWO POWERFUL LAWS – Every member of Congress should have the following tattooed on their forehead: "No legislation can amend the laws of economics," and "the only certain outcomes of legislation are unintended consequences."

 

  When Congress attempted to "soak the rich" by taxing luxury boats, the rich stopped buying luxury boats and all the middle-class boat-makers lost their jobs. When Congress attempted to close loopholes and stop giving tax breaks on real estate to “the rich” with the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the real estate industry went right into the tank, followed quickly by the banking industry which was lending to the real estate industry. So instead of soaking the rich, Congress crippled two industries, caused investors to lose millions and threw plenty of people out of work. I thought "reform" was supposed to have a positive connotation.

 

  INCREASE FREE TRADE – Ross Perot was dead wrong. Free trade between nations expands both economies. Nation A desires something that Nation B has which it does not have itself. Nation B desires something Nation A has which it does not have itself. By allowing Nation A and Nation B to trade, both nations are better off.

 

We buy Saudi oil to fuel our cars and heat our homes, and they buy American weapons to defend themselves. America has to have the confidence that it possesses some of the finest goods and services in the world, and the rest of the world wants to buy them from us. But to provide them with the money to buy from us, we need to be able to buy from them. NAFTA and GATT are just a start; the entire world will be better off with free trade.

 

  PEACE ON EARTH, GOODWILL TO ALL MEN - Although most conflicts in this world are painted as a dispute over some noble cause, I believe the root of all wars is essentially money.

 

Saddam Hussein claimed he was fighting for his people's honor as he demanded certain land be returned to Iraq. Nonsense. All Hussein wanted was the Kuwaiti oil. The Serbs are massacring the Muslims in Bosnia over some centuries-old dispute, but I suspect all they really want is the land for its timber, agriculture, and minerals.

 

  The Catholics and Protestants are arguing over some religious principle in Northern Ireland, but it probably has more to do with competition for the very limited supply of jobs. With the global population increasing and the supply of resources decreasing, goodwill to all men will be hard to come by as scarcity makes people lookout just for themselves and not be bothered with anyone else.

 

  But with peace on earth, mankind can devote its attention to constructive things, such as educating everyone and devising new technologies that conserve and preserve our precious resources. Then, there will be goodwill to all men.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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